Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints37
- Josh HartAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–118
- Q42.9Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving dunk (Ryan Rollins assists)109–118
- Q411.2Mikal Bridges makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)107–118
- Q412.5Ryan Rollins bad pass (Jalen Brunson steals)107–116
- Q419.3Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Kyle Kuzma107–116
- Q419.3Bucks Full timeout107–116
- Q419.3Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2107–116
- Q419.3Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2107–115
- Q419.3(00:19.3) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)107–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q350.4Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIL 87 – 89 NY · NY 57% → 68% +11NY 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q45:52Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 100 – 104 NY · MIL 11% → 22% +11MIL 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q43:16Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 105 – 107 NY · MIL 13% → 29% +17MIL 13% → 29%+17 pts
- Q42:53Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)MIL 105 – 110 NY · NY 71% → 88% +17NY 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q42:37Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layupMIL 107 – 110 NY · MIL 11% → 21% +11MIL 11% → 21%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML MIL +225 / NY -275
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NY: Elo 70.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -238
- MIL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.5 – 120.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +7 | MIL: Usual rotation · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +150 Elo | NY 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 120.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 114.310th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 118.53rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 112.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–39th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 8–13rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148124th of 30 |
| 18th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15917th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–5 NY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Oct 28NY 111 @ MIL 121Picked NY 55%Miss
- Mar 28NY 116 @ MIL 107Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jan 12MIL 106 @ NY 140Picked NY 62%Hit
- Nov 8MIL 94 @ NY 116Picked NY 69%Hit
- Apr 7NY 122 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Dec 25MIL 122 @ NY 129Picked MIL 58%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 130 @ NY 111Picked MIL 53%Hit
- Dec 5NY 122 @ MIL 146Picked MIL 63%Hit