Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints26
- AJ GreenAssists8
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds12
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–106
- Q41.9Davion Mitchell defensive rebound103–106
- Q45.7Myles Turner misses 27-foot three point jumper103–106
- Q424.6Myles Turner defensive rebound103–106
- Q424.6Tyler Herro misses 15-foot pullup jump shot103–106
- Q439.4Bam Adebayo defensive rebound103–106
- Q442.7Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper103–106
- Q444.4Ryan Rollins offensive rebound103–106
- Q447.4Ryan Rollins misses free throw 1 of 1103–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:18Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 71 – 68 MIA · MIL 32% → 43% +10MIL 32% → 43%+10 pts
- Q31:36Dru Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIL 73 – 76 MIA · MIA 66% → 76% +10MIA 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q48:40AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)MIL 84 – 87 MIA · MIL 14% → 24% +10MIL 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q48:00Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIL 84 – 90 MIA · MIA 76% → 86% +10MIA 76% → 86%+10 pts
- Q41:06Gary Trent Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 101 – 104 MIA · MIL 1% → 12% +11MIL 1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -10.5
- ML MIL +340 / MIA -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9.5
- MIA 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 82.8%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -360
- MIL +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.0 – 123.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −101 | +55 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +273 Elo | MIA 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 78.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 123.91st of 30 |
| 21st of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 117.918th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +5.98th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 108.62nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.5 | Pace | 107.91st of 30 |
| 18th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 30 |
| 17th of 301483 | Elo rating | 155110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–11 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–1 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.