Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints27
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds11
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Pelle LarssonAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–106
- Q40.1Mavericks offensive team rebound102–106
- Q40.9Klay Thompson misses heave jump shot102–106
- Q43.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2102–106
- Q43.1Klay Thompson enters the game for Caleb Martin102–105
- Q43.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2102–105
- Q43.1Caleb Martin personal take foul102–104
- Q43.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound102–104
- Q45.5P.J. Washington misses 24-foot three point jumper102–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:08P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 94 – 95 MIA · DAL 21% → 37% +16DAL 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q42:26Kel'el Ware makes alley oop dunk shot (Davion Mitchell assists)DAL 98 – 102 MIA · MIA 72% → 85% +13MIA 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q41:58P.J. Washington makes two point shotDAL 100 – 102 MIA · DAL 13% → 27% +14DAL 13% → 27%+14 pts
- Q41:05Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2DAL 102 – 102 MIA · DAL 34% → 47% +13DAL 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q442.1Tyler Herro makes 9-foot running pullup jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)DAL 102 – 104 MIA · MIA 52% → 82% +30MIA 52% → 82%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML DAL +210 / MIA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9.5
- MIA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 82.4%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -221
- DAL +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.5 – 124.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +47 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +268 Elo | MIA 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 124.91st of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 118.920th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.1 | Margin | +6.18th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 114.813th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.1 | Pace | 108.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 151112th of 30 |
| 25th of 301403 | Elo rating | 155011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+47 Elo- Norman Powell left groin−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–11 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.