Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints32
- Davion MitchellAssists12
- Kel'el WareRebounds16
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- Trendon WatfordAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds24
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q41.8Dominick Barlow makes dunk (Jared McCain assists)127–117
- Q45.5Johni Broome defensive rebound127–115
- Q49.2Jahmir Young misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot127–115
- Q426.7Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2127–115
- Q426.7Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2127–114
- Q426.7Jahmir Young shooting foul127–113
- Q432.7Jahmir Young makes 3-foot step back jumpshot127–113
- Q451.5Pelle Larsson defensive rebound125–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:35Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 89 – 83 PHI · MIA 60% → 70% +10MIA 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q32:46Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)MIA 89 – 86 PHI · PHI 30% → 40% +10PHI 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q411:10Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point shot (Dru Smith assists)MIA 102 – 93 PHI · MIA 73% → 83% +9MIA 73% → 83%+9 pts
- Q410:53Jared McCain makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)MIA 102 – 96 PHI · PHI 17% → 26% +10PHI 17% → 26%+10 pts
- Q48:16Dru Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 108 – 103 PHI · MIA 59% → 73% +14MIA 59% → 73%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML MIA +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- PHI 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 39.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 120.0 – 121.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +38 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIA crossed 1 time zone and PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +76 Elo | MIA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.8 | Points scored | 118.415th of 30 |
| 20th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 116.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +2.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 112.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.3 | Pace | 102.019th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
| 6th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 11th of 301542 | Elo rating | 143923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 11–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–2 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Apr 7PHI 105 @ MIA 117Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Mar 29MIA 118 @ PHI 95Picked MIA 73%Hit
- Feb 5MIA 108 @ PHI 101Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Nov 18PHI 89 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Apr 4PHI 109 @ MIA 105Picked MIA 56%Miss
- Mar 18MIA 91 @ PHI 98Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Feb 14MIA 109 @ PHI 104Picked PHI 57%Miss
- Dec 25PHI 113 @ MIA 119Picked MIA 54%Hit