LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- James HardenAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints23
- Cam SpencerAssists7
- Cedric CowardRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–107
- Q45.5Grizzlies defensive team rebound98–107
- Q48.4Nicolas Batum misses 27-foot three point jumper98–107
- Q417.5Jock Landale personal foul98–107
- Q427.3Cedric Coward makes free throw 2 of 298–107
- Q427.3Kobe Brown enters the game for Kawhi Leonard98–106
- Q427.3Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 298–106
- Q427.3Kawhi Leonard shooting foul98–105
- Q429.4Kawhi Leonard lost ball turnover (Cedric Coward steals)98–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:44Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach Edey assists)LAC 84 – 87 MEM · MEM 48% → 61% +13MEM 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q46:46Kobe Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 96 – 95 MEM · LAC 41% → 57% +16LAC 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q44:37Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three pointerLAC 96 – 98 MEM · MEM 42% → 62% +20MEM 42% → 62%+20 pts
- Q43:06Jaylen Wells makes dunk (Cam Spencer assists)LAC 98 – 100 MEM · MEM 49% → 65% +16MEM 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q42:38Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot (Cedric Coward assists)LAC 98 – 102 MEM · MEM 66% → 80% +14MEM 66% → 80%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -135 / MEM +114
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- LAC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 47.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -123
- MEM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.5 – 110.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | −36 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +17 Elo | MEM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 113.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 117.017th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | −3.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.9 | Pace | 102.812th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–9 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 30 |
| 18th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–16 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 3–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–2 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 28MEM 112 @ LAC 107Picked LAC 69%Miss
- Mar 21MEM 108 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 69%Hit
- Feb 12MEM 114 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Dec 23LAC 114 @ MEM 110Picked MEM 68%Miss
- Feb 23LAC 101 @ MEM 95Picked LAC 60%Hit
- Jan 12LAC 128 @ MEM 119Picked LAC 63%Hit
- Dec 29MEM 106 @ LAC 117Picked LAC 71%Hit
- Nov 12MEM 105 @ LAC 101Picked LAC 63%Miss