LA Clippers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints27
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds17
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints21
- Onyeka OkongwuAssists5
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–92
- Q48.3Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 2 of 2115–92
- Q48.3Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 1 of 2115–91
- Q48.3Jahmyl Telfort personal foul115–90
- Q415.1Hawks offensive team rebound115–90
- Q416.4Asa Newell misses layup115–90
- Q427.2Cam Christie makes 1-foot dunk115–90
- Q429.9Caleb Houstan bad pass (Cam Christie steals)113–90
- Q439.2Kobe Brown makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kobe Sanders assists)113–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:16Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)LAC 27 – 24 ATL · ATL 38% → 46% +7ATL 38% → 46%+7 pts
- Q210:36Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)LAC 29 – 27 ATL · ATL 41% → 48% +7ATL 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q210:12Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 32 – 27 ATL · LAC 52% → 59% +7LAC 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q28:00Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)LAC 32 – 30 ATL · ATL 40% → 48% +8ATL 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q24:05Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)LAC 40 – 38 ATL · ATL 39% → 47% +8ATL 39% → 47%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML LAC +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- LAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.5 – 114.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −33 | LAC: Usual rotation · ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −47, Jalen Johnson −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 118.016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 115.812th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +2.215th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 111.510th of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.0 | Pace | 102.713th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 30 |
| 7th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 148623rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301449 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−33 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−47 Elo
- Jalen Johnson right calf−40 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–16 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.