Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints41
- Dyson DanielsAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints44
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Quentin GrimesRebounds10
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game142–134
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime142–134
- 2OT4.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound142–134
- 2OT4.2Dominick Barlow misses 28-foot three point jumper142–134
- 2OT12.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2142–134
- 2OT12.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2141–134
- 2OT12.5Quentin Grimes personal take foul140–134
- 2OT12.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound140–134
- 2OT13.9Tyrese Maxey misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot140–134
- 2OT17.3Jalen Johnson lost ball turnover (Dominick Barlow steals)140–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48.8Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)ATL 115 – 115 PHI · PHI <1% → 50% +50PHI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:49Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 122 – 121 PHI · ATL 29% → 59% +31ATL 29% → 59%+31 pts
- OT1:37Jared McCain makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)ATL 122 – 124 PHI · PHI 40% → 72% +33PHI 40% → 72%+33 pts
- OT0.3Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 126 – 126 PHI · ATL <1% → 50% +50ATL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- 2OT2:25Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 135 – 132 PHI · ATL 49% → 75% +26ATL 49% → 75%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML ATL +120 / PHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- ATL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.0 – 117.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +73 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −38 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 117.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 117.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.6 | Pace | 102.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149515th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Elo rating | 141924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−1 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis injury/illness−38 Elo
76ers
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–10 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–2 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.