Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints31
- Jalen SuggsAssists11
- Noah PendaRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints20
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–103
- Q48.6Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 2144–103
- Q48.6Jett Howard makes free throw 1 of 2143–103
- Q48.6Dominick Barlow shooting foul142–103
- Q48.6Jett Howard offensive rebound142–103
- Q410.9Jase Richardson misses 24-foot three point jumper142–103
- Q416.6Noah Penda offensive rebound142–103
- Q421.0Orlando Robinson misses 25-foot three point jumper142–103
- Q428.8Johni Broome makes two point shot142–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:54Jared McCain makes 30-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)ORL 8 – 9 PHI · PHI 33% → 39% +6PHI 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q14:04Jared McCain makes 27-foot three point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)ORL 17 – 21 PHI · PHI 40% → 46% +7PHI 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q11:03Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 29 – 33 PHI · ORL 46% → 53% +7ORL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q131.0Anthony Black makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 32 – 35 PHI · ORL 48% → 55% +7ORL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q12.5Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three pointerORL 35 – 35 PHI · ORL 55% → 62% +7ORL 55% → 62%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -4.5
- ML ORL -195 / PHI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 59.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -175
- PHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 117.0 – 112.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +7 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +64 Elo | ORL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 118.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 116.817th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +1.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 114.213th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.216th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 30 |
| 13th of 301529 | Elo rating | 143124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–5 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 27ORL 124 @ PHI 136Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Jan 12PHI 99 @ ORL 104Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Dec 6ORL 94 @ PHI 102Picked ORL 55%Miss
- Dec 4ORL 106 @ PHI 102Picked ORL 67%Hit
- Nov 15PHI 86 @ ORL 98Picked ORL 55%Hit
- Apr 12ORL 113 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Jan 19PHI 124 @ ORL 109Picked PHI 62%Hit
- Dec 27PHI 112 @ ORL 92Picked PHI 53%Hit