Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints22
- Quentin GrimesAssists9
- Dominick BarlowRebounds10
Nets- Egor DeminPoints23
- Terance MannAssists6
- Egor DeminRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–103
- Q420.9Dominick Barlow defensive rebound115–103
- Q424.2Egor Demin misses running pullup jump shot115–103
- Q427.7Ziaire Williams defensive rebound115–103
- Q428.7Adem Bona misses dunk115–103
- Q428.7Adem Bona offensive rebound115–103
- Q432.8Quentin Grimes misses 7-foot two point shot115–103
- Q453.6Adem Bona defensive rebound115–103
- Q456.9Egor Demin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot115–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:00Andre Drummond makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)PHI 9 – 4 BKN · PHI 74% → 79% +5PHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q17:51Noah Clowney makes 27-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)PHI 9 – 7 BKN · BKN 21% → 26% +5BKN 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q12:59Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 24 – 18 BKN · PHI 75% → 80% +5PHI 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q35:12Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)PHI 72 – 62 BKN · BKN 7% → 12% +4BKN 7% → 12%+4 pts
- Q34:07Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)PHI 74 – 65 BKN · BKN 8% → 13% +5BKN 8% → 13%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML PHI -280 / BKN +230
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -243
- BKN +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.0 – 107.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1351 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −32 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 109.230th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 119.722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −10.526th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 109.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 120.329th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 8th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 0–830th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15206th of 30 |
| 24th of 301410 | Elo rating | 135127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | — |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 2PHI 129 @ BKN 105Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 105 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 82%Miss
- Feb 12PHI 96 @ BKN 100Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Jan 4PHI 123 @ BKN 94Picked PHI 77%Hit
- Nov 22BKN 98 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Apr 14BKN 86 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 65%Hit
- Mar 5PHI 107 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 52%Hit
- Feb 3BKN 136 @ PHI 121Picked BKN 54%Hit