Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints35
- Brandon WilliamsAssists7
- Cooper FlaggRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints30
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound114–110
- Q40.8John Collins misses heave jump shot114–110
- Q41.7Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q41.7Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2113–110
- Q41.7Nicolas Batum personal take foul112–110
- Q46.7James Harden makes free throw 3 of 3112–110
- Q46.7James Harden makes free throw 2 of 3112–109
- Q46.7James Harden makes free throw 1 of 3112–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:02Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 99 – 98 LAC · DAL 28% → 48% +20DAL 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q42:47Cooper Flagg makes 16-foot pullup jump shotDAL 101 – 100 LAC · DAL 34% → 51% +17DAL 34% → 51%+17 pts
- Q42:22John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)DAL 101 – 103 LAC · LAC 48% → 74% +26LAC 48% → 74%+26 pts
- Q41:52Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)DAL 104 – 103 LAC · DAL 25% → 54% +30DAL 25% → 54%+30 pts
- Q41:08Kris Dunn makes layup (Ivica Zubac assists)DAL 106 – 105 LAC · LAC 18% → 41% +23LAC 18% → 41%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML DAL +340 / LAC -450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6
- LAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 73.0%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -360
- DAL +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 107.5 – 117.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −62 | +8 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +173 Elo | LAC 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 111.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 117.920th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −6.023rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.4 | Offense rating | 112.521st of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 118.526th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.7 | Pace | 98.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 30 |
| 25th of 301399 | Elo rating | 146620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 5–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–8 LAC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Nov 14LAC 133 @ DAL 127Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Apr 5DAL 104 @ LAC 135Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Apr 4DAL 91 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Dec 21LAC 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 59%Hit
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss