Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints22
- Cooper FlaggAssists11
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Austin ReavesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–129
- Q43.4shot clock turnover119–129
- Q427.4P.J. Washington makes tip shot119–129
- Q427.4P.J. Washington offensive rebound117–129
- Q427.8P.J. Washington misses finger roll layup117–129
- Q429.1P.J. Washington offensive rebound117–129
- Q431.5Brandon Williams misses driving layup117–129
- Q443.6Dwight Powell defensive rebound117–129
- Q446.3Luka Doncic misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot117–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:54Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)DAL 101 – 107 LAL · LAL 76% → 85% +9LAL 76% → 85%+9 pts
- Q48:31Ryan Nembhard makes 27-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 108 – 109 LAL · DAL 21% → 33% +12DAL 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q47:52Anthony Davis makes 11-foot two point shot (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 110 – 109 LAL · DAL 33% → 43% +10DAL 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q47:40Deandre Ayton makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 110 – 111 LAL · LAL 57% → 67% +10LAL 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q45:55Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)DAL 110 – 117 LAL · LAL 81% → 91% +10LAL 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML DAL +340 / LAL -450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9.5
- LAL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 82.3%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -360
- DAL +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.5 – 121.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +62 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +267 Elo | LAL 82.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 118.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.9 | Margin | +3.513th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.5 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.719th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 5–211th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148125th of 30 |
| 25th of 301402 | Elo rating | 16005th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–3 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.