Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints29
- Jalen JohnsonAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–99
- Q40.1Keaton Wallace enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye98–99
- Q40.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Dyson Daniels98–99
- Q40.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins98–99
- Q40.1(00:00.1) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)98–99
- Q40.1Hawks Full timeout98–99
- Q40.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound98–99
- Q40.4Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 2 of 298–99
- Q40.4Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Caris LeVert98–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:35Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point shot (Keaton Wallace assists)ATL 89 – 84 DET · ATL 52% → 69% +17ATL 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q43:51Jalen Duren makes 5-foot two point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)ATL 89 – 88 DET · DET 37% → 51% +14DET 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q43:21Cade Cunningham makes 6-foot step back jumpshotATL 89 – 91 DET · DET 58% → 72% +14DET 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q41:12Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 95 – 95 DET · ATL 13% → 45% +32ATL 13% → 45%+32 pts
- Q452.5Cade Cunningham makes 17-foot pullup jump shotATL 95 – 97 DET · DET 54% → 81% +27DET 54% → 81%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML ATL +320 / DET -410
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- DET: Elo 74.8%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -338
- ATL +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 111.5 – 121.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +52 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −37 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +189 Elo | DET 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 119.87th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 114.08th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +5.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 309–4 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 30 |
| 26th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15759th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+4 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−37 Elo
Pistons
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–10 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 18DET 120 @ ATL 112Picked DET 52%Hit
- Feb 23DET 148 @ ATL 143Picked DET 54%Hit
- Feb 3ATL 132 @ DET 130Picked DET 63%Miss
- Jan 22DET 114 @ ATL 104Picked ATL 60%Miss
- Nov 8ATL 121 @ DET 122Picked DET 55%Hit
- Apr 3DET 113 @ ATL 121Picked ATL 75%Hit
- Dec 18DET 124 @ ATL 130Picked ATL 75%Hit
- Nov 14ATL 126 @ DET 120Picked ATL 62%Hit