Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints37
- Anthony BlackAssists4
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints39
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Cade CunninghamRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–109
- Q40.8Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound112–109
- Q40.8Anthony Black blocks Duncan Robinson 's 25-foot three point jumper112–109
- Q43.8Cade Cunningham offensive rebound112–109
- Q44.7Cade Cunningham misses free throw 2 of 2112–109
- Q44.7Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Ausar Thompson112–109
- Q44.7Pistons offensive team rebound112–109
- Q44.7Cade Cunningham misses free throw 1 of 2112–109
- Q44.7Franz Wagner personal foul112–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:10Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Ausar Thompson assists)ORL 100 – 100 DET · DET 33% → 53% +21DET 33% → 53%+21 pts
- Q43:01Jalen Suggs makes 12-foot two point shotORL 105 – 104 DET · ORL 39% → 56% +16ORL 39% → 56%+16 pts
- Q42:48Cade Cunningham makes driving layupORL 105 – 106 DET · DET 44% → 61% +17DET 44% → 61%+17 pts
- Q42:11Desmond Bane makes driving layupORL 107 – 106 DET · ORL 38% → 57% +19ORL 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q41:33Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)ORL 110 – 109 DET · DET 13% → 40% +27DET 13% → 40%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML ORL +145 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- DET: Elo 60.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -154
- ORL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 113.5 – 117.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +42 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +73 Elo | DET 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 119.38th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 112.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +6.47th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 115.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–14th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 147527th of 30 |
| 12th of 301550 | Elo rating | 15759th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–9 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–2 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Oct 29ORL 116 @ DET 135Picked ORL 54%Miss
- Jan 25DET 113 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Jan 1ORL 96 @ DET 105Picked DET 55%Hit
- Nov 23DET 100 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 78%Hit
- Mar 3DET 91 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 24ORL 112 @ DET 109Picked ORL 67%Hit
- Feb 4ORL 111 @ DET 99Picked ORL 62%Hit
- Dec 8DET 91 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 79%Hit