Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Paul ReedRebounds10
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints31
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–135
- Q40.0Norman Powell makes driving layup138–135
- Q44.4Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2138–133
- Q44.4Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2137–133
- Q44.4Bam Adebayo personal take foul136–133
- Q46.5Pistons Full timeout136–133
- Q46.5Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2136–133
- Q46.5Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2136–132
- Q46.5Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson136–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:37Tobias Harris makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 57 – 49 MIA · DET 55% → 63% +8DET 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q455.5Norman Powell makes free throw 3 of 3DET 131 – 129 MIA · MIA 14% → 24% +10MIA 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q440.5Daniss Jenkins makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 133 – 129 MIA · DET 80% → 96% +16DET 80% → 96%+16 pts
- Q434.2Bam Adebayo makes tip shotDET 133 – 131 MIA · MIA 3% → 18% +15MIA 3% → 18%+15 pts
- Q420.2Cade Cunningham makes 5-foot pullup jump shotDET 135 – 131 MIA · DET 89% → >99% +10DET 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML DET +145 / MIA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 65.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.5 – 122.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | +55 | DET: Missing Caris LeVert −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +109 Elo | MIA 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 122.92nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 117.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +5.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 108.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.8 | Pace | 107.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 30 |
| 9th of 301567 | Elo rating | 155312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+8 Elo- Caris LeVert right knee soreness−7 Elo
Heat
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–7 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 19DET 116 @ MIA 113Picked DET 61%Hit
- Dec 16MIA 124 @ DET 125Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 12MIA 121 @ DET 123Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Oct 28DET 98 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 75%Hit
- Mar 17MIA 104 @ DET 101Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Mar 15MIA 108 @ DET 95Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Mar 5DET 110 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 77%Hit
- Oct 25DET 102 @ MIA 103Picked MIA 55%Hit