LA Clippers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints36
- Kris DunnAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Heat- Norman PowellPoints30
- Davion MitchellAssists12
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–140
- Q40.0Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes 5-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kobe Brown assists)123–140
- Q46.9Clippers defensive team rebound121–140
- Q47.2Kasparas Jakucionis misses two point shot121–140
- Q410.6Kobe Sanders lost ball turnover (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)121–140
- Q416.2Kobe Sanders defensive rebound121–140
- Q416.2Kobe Brown blocks Kasparas Jakucionis 's 5-foot driving layup121–140
- Q422.5Kel'el Ware defensive rebound121–140
- Q425.5Yanic Konan Niederhauser misses 7-foot two point shot121–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:13Pelle Larsson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)LAC 21 – 25 MIA · MIA 69% → 74% +6MIA 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q12:27Dru Smith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)LAC 24 – 28 MIA · MIA 68% → 74% +6MIA 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q28:48Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)LAC 37 – 42 MIA · LAC 19% → 24% +5LAC 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q26:33Norman Powell makes 27-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)LAC 46 – 47 MIA · MIA 60% → 67% +7MIA 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q25:27Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)LAC 46 – 52 MIA · MIA 71% → 78% +6MIA 71% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML LAC +200 / MIA -245
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8
- MIA 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 78.0%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -213
- LAC +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.5 – 121.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +56 | LAC: Usual rotation · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +220 Elo | MIA 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 123.52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 118.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.9 | Margin | +5.36th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 114.014th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 109.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.6 | Pace | 107.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 9–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15137th of 30 |
| 21st of 301455 | Elo rating | 154511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–15 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.