Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints35
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds14
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–122
- Q47.8Ronald Holland II defensive rebound116–122
- Q49.6Caleb Love misses 26-foot three point jumper116–122
- Q415.8Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2116–122
- Q415.8Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2116–121
- Q415.8Deni Avdija personal take foul116–120
- Q416.1Robert Williams III makes dunk116–120
- Q416.1Robert Williams III offensive rebound114–120
- Q417.8Jerami Grant misses 26-foot three point jumper114–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:43Jerami Grant makes 22-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR 105 – 103 DET · POR 36% → 58% +22POR 36% → 58%+22 pts
- Q42:43Deni Avdija makes 5-foot two point shotPOR 110 – 107 DET · POR 53% → 69% +17POR 53% → 69%+17 pts
- Q42:35Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)POR 110 – 110 DET · DET 30% → 56% +26DET 30% → 56%+26 pts
- Q42:22Cade Cunningham makes driving layupPOR 110 – 112 DET · DET 56% → 73% +17DET 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q41:48Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)POR 110 – 115 DET · DET 75% → 93% +18DET 75% → 93%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML POR +270 / DET -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 71.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -286
- POR +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 122.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +40 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +158 Elo | DET 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 72.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 118.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 113.25th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +5.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 109.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 103.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–25th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15689th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+8 Elo- Donovan Clingan leg injury−16 Elo
Pistons
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–10 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–8 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.