Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints20
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Cade CunninghamRebounds7
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points26
- Ryan RollinsAssists8
- Jericho SimsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–113
- Q41.9Ryan Rollins defensive rebound109–113
- Q41.9Caris LeVert misses free throw 2 of 2109–113
- Q41.9Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins109–113
- Q41.9Myles Turner enters the game for Kyle Kuzma109–113
- Q41.9Caris LeVert makes free throw 1 of 2109–113
- Q41.9Kyle Kuzma loose ball foul108–113
- Q41.9Pistons offensive team rebound108–113
- Q42.3Paul Reed misses 25-foot three point jumper108–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:04Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 98 – 99 MIL · DET 32% → 49% +17DET 32% → 49%+17 pts
- Q44:13Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 103 – 103 MIL · DET 33% → 54% +21DET 33% → 54%+21 pts
- Q42:09Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)DET 108 – 103 MIL · DET 71% → 90% +19DET 71% → 90%+19 pts
- Q41:55AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)DET 108 – 106 MIL · MIL 9% → 28% +19MIL 9% → 28%+19 pts
- Q41:34Jericho Sims makes two point shotDET 108 – 108 MIL · MIL 26% → 48% +21MIL 26% → 48%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -192 / MIL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 66.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -171
- MIL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 116.5 – 112.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | +13 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +117 Elo | DET 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 116.019th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 118.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −2.218th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 116.123rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 100.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Road vs home | 6–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 147228th of 30 |
| 8th of 301577 | Elo rating | 147218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–8 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 22DET 129 @ MIL 116Picked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 13DET 133 @ MIL 140Picked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 11MIL 125 @ DET 119Picked DET 60%Miss
- Dec 3MIL 128 @ DET 107Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Nov 13DET 120 @ MIL 127Picked MIL 70%Hit
- Jan 22MIL 122 @ DET 113Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Jan 20MIL 141 @ DET 135Picked MIL 73%Hit
- Dec 16DET 114 @ MIL 146Picked MIL 88%Hit