Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points30
- Kyle KuzmaAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds7
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints28
- Khris MiddletonAssists6
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–129
- Q40.1AJ Green makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot126–129
- Q44.1AJ Green defensive rebound123–129
- Q45.4Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 1 of 1123–129
- Q45.4Kyle Kuzma enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo123–129
- Q45.4Giannis Antetokounmpo shooting foul123–129
- Q45.4Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot dunk123–129
- Q46.8Myles Turner bad pass (Bilal Coulibaly steals)123–127
- Q414.4Myles Turner enters the game for Jericho Sims123–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:57Ryan Rollins makes 28-foot three pointerMIL 114 – 112 WSH · MIL 53% → 72% +18MIL 53% → 72%+18 pts
- Q43:54Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 115 – 115 WSH · WSH 22% → 41% +19WSH 22% → 41%+19 pts
- Q41:21Khris Middleton makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)MIL 122 – 121 WSH · WSH 14% → 33% +19WSH 14% → 33%+19 pts
- Q452.9Khris Middleton makes 28-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)MIL 122 – 124 WSH · WSH 31% → 75% +43WSH 31% → 75%+43 pts
- Q415.0CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Marvin Bagley III assists)MIL 123 – 127 WSH · WSH 75% → >99% +25WSH 75% → >99%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -10.5
- ML MIL -425 / WSH +330
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 73.0%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -348
- WSH +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 121.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1281 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +3 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +172 Elo | MIL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 112.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 127.730th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −15.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 107.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 121.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.8 | Pace | 103.86th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 1–629th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301482 | Elo rating | 128130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–12 | 5–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–1 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.