Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Danny WolfPoints22
- Ben SarafAssists7
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–116
- Q419.2Tyson Etienne makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)99–116
- Q419.8Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound96–116
- Q421.0Cole Anthony misses dunk96–116
- Q426.0Day'Ron Sharpe lost ball turnover (Cole Anthony steals)96–116
- Q433.9Drake Powell makes technical free throw96–116
- Q433.9Kyle Kuzma technical foul95–116
- Q436.0Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes driving dunk (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)95–116
- Q445.0Drake Powell makes free throw 2 of 295–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:14Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)BKN 31 – 37 MIL · MIL 83% → 87% +4MIL 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q29:01Danny Wolf makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 34 – 37 MIL · BKN 13% → 17% +4BKN 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q28:27Danny Wolf makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 37 – 39 MIL · BKN 14% → 19% +5BKN 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q28:16Kevin Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 37 – 42 MIL · MIL 81% → 86% +5MIL 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q27:41Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)BKN 39 – 45 MIL · MIL 81% → 87% +6MIL 81% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -11.5
- ML BKN +425 / MIL -650
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7.5
- MIL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 77.0%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -455
- BKN +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.5 – 115.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −30 | +10 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +210 Elo | MIL 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 80.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 115.520th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 118.621st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−10.6 | Margin | −3.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 113.018th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 116.123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.125th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149118th of 30 |
| 27th of 301342 | Elo rating | 147619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–10 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–4 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.