Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints24
- Russell WestbrookAssists14
- Russell WestbrookRebounds12
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints28
- Andrew NembhardAssists12
- Jay HuffRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–116
- Q40.5Russell Westbrook offensive rebound105–116
- Q43.4Nique Clifford misses 9-foot step back jumpshot105–116
- Q47.7Andrew Nembhard personal foul105–116
- Q47.7DeMar DeRozan offensive rebound105–116
- Q48.2Maxime Raynaud misses tip shot105–116
- Q48.2Maxime Raynaud offensive rebound105–116
- Q411.4Nique Clifford misses two point shot105–116
- Q416.5Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2105–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:11Russell Westbrook makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)SAC 95 – 97 IND · SAC 23% → 36% +13SAC 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q46:41Russell Westbrook makes 15-foot pullup jump shotSAC 99 – 97 IND · SAC 46% → 58% +11SAC 46% → 58%+11 pts
- Q45:41Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)SAC 101 – 100 IND · IND 30% → 47% +17IND 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q45:13Bennedict Mathurin makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 101 – 103 IND · IND 47% → 65% +19IND 47% → 65%+19 pts
- Q44:36Andrew Nembhard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)SAC 101 – 106 IND · IND 66% → 82% +16IND 66% → 82%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML SAC +136 / IND -162
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- IND: Elo 63.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -146
- SAC +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.0 – 117.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | −28 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +96 Elo | IND 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 111.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 119.424th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.6 | Margin | −8.427th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 107.230th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.0 | Pace | 102.711th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 4–824th of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301444 | Elo rating | 148117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–15 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–13 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–3 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.