Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints52
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–120
- Q410.6Taelon Peter bad pass (Zeke Nnaji steals)135–120
- Q422.3Curtis Jones makes 4-foot two point shot135–120
- Q423.3Curtis Jones offensive rebound133–120
- Q426.5Curtis Jones misses two point shot133–120
- Q441.1Isaiah Jackson makes two point shot133–120
- Q441.7Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound133–118
- Q444.9Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses 23-foot three point jumper133–118
- Q452.0Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound133–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:37Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 3 – 5 IND · DEN 62% → 68% +6DEN 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q18:09Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three pointerDEN 8 – 9 IND · DEN 64% → 70% +6DEN 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q15:29Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 14 – 17 IND · IND 29% → 35% +6IND 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q14:44Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 19 – 17 IND · DEN 69% → 75% +6DEN 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q27:42Peyton Watson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)DEN 43 – 39 IND · DEN 71% → 77% +6DEN 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML DEN -310 / IND +250
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 68.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -265
- IND +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.5 – 115.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −65 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +132 Elo | DEN 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.6 | Points scored | 110.229th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 119.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.8 | Margin | −9.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.9 | Offense rating | 105.829th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 114.520th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Road vs home | 4–723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301633 | Elo rating | 147119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–8 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–1 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.