Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints32
- Ryan NembhardAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–121
- Q423.1Nikola Jokic bad pass (Cooper Flagg steals)131–121
- Q427.5Nikola Jokic defensive rebound131–121
- Q431.4Anthony Davis misses 30-foot three point step back jumpshot131–121
- Q445.7Mavericks Full timeout131–121
- Q453.0Klay Thompson defensive rebound131–121
- Q456.7Nikola Jokic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot131–121
- Q41:01Anthony Davis makes dunk131–121
- Q41:01Anthony Davis offensive rebound129–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:05D'Angelo Russell makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 115 – 112 DEN · DAL 36% → 51% +15DAL 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q46:59Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 118 – 114 DEN · DAL 42% → 58% +16DAL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- Q46:48Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 118 – 117 DEN · DEN 41% → 58% +16DEN 41% → 58%+16 pts
- Q46:00Klay Thompson makes alley oop layup (Anthony Davis assists)DAL 120 – 117 DEN · DAL 43% → 55% +12DAL 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q43:12Cooper Flagg makes 8-foot two point shotDAL 122 – 117 DEN · DAL 65% → 78% +14DAL 65% → 78%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML DAL +410 / DEN -550
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 80.4%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -432
- DAL +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.0 – 123.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −36 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +245 Elo | DEN 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 81.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 124.81st of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 115.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.7 | Margin | +9.73rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 123.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.9 | Pace | 100.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–313th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148821st of 30 |
| 24th of 301409 | Elo rating | 16542nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–12 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–14 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–5 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.