Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints27
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Oso IghodaroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–112
- Q415.3Curtis Jones defensive rebound130–112
- Q418.8Jamaree Bouyea misses 12-foot step back jumpshot130–112
- Q433.7Spencer Jones makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Hunter Tyson assists)130–112
- Q439.6Hunter Tyson defensive rebound127–112
- Q442.8Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 12-foot hook shot127–112
- Q448.0Suns offensive team rebound127–112
- Q448.1Zeke Nnaji blocks Jamaree Bouyea 's 5-foot driving layup127–112
- Q456.4Nigel Hayes-Davis defensive rebound127–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:34Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 56 – 53 PHX · DEN 58% → 66% +8DEN 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q21:13Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)DEN 56 – 56 PHX · PHX 34% → 42% +8PHX 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q237.7Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three pointerDEN 61 – 57 PHX · DEN 61% → 69% +8DEN 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q230.1Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)DEN 61 – 60 PHX · PHX 31% → 39% +8PHX 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q310:46Spencer Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 66 – 62 PHX · DEN 60% → 69% +8DEN 60% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -170 / PHX +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 52.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -154
- PHX +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.0 – 115.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | −8 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +17 Elo | DEN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.5 | Points scored | 116.918th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 113.26th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.3 | Margin | +3.813th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.3 | Offense rating | 114.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 110.79th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–2 | Road vs home | 8–310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301640 | Elo rating | 155511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 8–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–3 PHX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Oct 25PHX 111 @ DEN 133Picked DEN 85%Hit
- Mar 7PHX 141 @ DEN 149Picked DEN 76%Hit
- Feb 8DEN 122 @ PHX 105Picked DEN 69%Hit
- Dec 25DEN 100 @ PHX 110Picked DEN 55%Miss
- Dec 23PHX 90 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Mar 27PHX 104 @ DEN 97Picked DEN 62%Miss
- Mar 5PHX 117 @ DEN 107Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Dec 1DEN 119 @ PHX 111Picked DEN 55%Hit