Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints36
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Pascal SiakamRebounds10
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Matas BuzelisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–105
- Q45.3shot clock turnover120–105
- Q429.4Jevon Carter makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Emanuel Miller assists)120–105
- Q443.3Tony Bradley makes 1-foot layup (Ethan Thompson assists)120–103
- Q452.6Tony Bradley defensive rebound118–103
- Q453.7Patrick Williams misses 9-foot two point shot118–103
- Q41:14Tony Bradley enters the game for Andrew Nembhard118–103
- Q41:14Taelon Peter enters the game for Pascal Siakam118–103
- Q41:14Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff118–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q231.0Ethan Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 62 – 54 CHI · IND 55% → 63% +8IND 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q213.0Josh Giddey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)IND 62 – 57 CHI · CHI 36% → 45% +9CHI 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q311:03Bennedict Mathurin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)IND 67 – 59 CHI · IND 56% → 64% +9IND 56% → 64%+9 pts
- Q31:47Jevon Carter makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Coby White assists)IND 86 – 81 CHI · CHI 27% → 38% +10CHI 27% → 38%+10 pts
- Q48:52Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)IND 99 – 92 CHI · CHI 14% → 24% +10CHI 14% → 24%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML IND +160 / CHI -192
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -171
- IND +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.0 – 119.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +27 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +77 Elo | CHI 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 119.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 122.726th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.5 | Margin | −3.521st of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.9 | Pace | 105.72nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301463 | Elo rating | 143923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–11 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–4 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Nov 29CHI 101 @ IND 103Picked CHI 57%Miss
- Mar 10IND 103 @ CHI 121Picked IND 61%Miss
- Mar 2CHI 112 @ IND 127Picked IND 82%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 113 @ IND 129Picked IND 64%Hit
- Dec 6IND 132 @ CHI 123Picked IND 60%Hit
- Mar 27IND 99 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Mar 13CHI 132 @ IND 129Picked IND 59%Miss
- Dec 28IND 120 @ CHI 104Picked CHI 56%Miss