Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points33
- Nic ClaxtonAssists9
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–103
- Q47.4shot clock turnover113–103
- Q428.6Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound113–103
- Q432.0Emanuel Miller misses two point shot113–103
- Q439.4Jevon Carter defensive rebound113–103
- Q441.5Michael Porter Jr. misses 20-foot step back jumpshot113–103
- Q456.3Jevon Carter makes 15-foot jumper (Trentyn Flowers assists)113–103
- Q457.7Lachlan Olbrich offensive rebound113–101
- Q41:00Nic Claxton blocks Jevon Carter 's 2-foot driving layup113–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:19Julian Phillips makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BKN 56 – 51 CHI · CHI 43% → 52% +9CHI 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q310:04Noah Clowney makes 22-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)BKN 59 – 51 CHI · BKN 48% → 58% +9BKN 48% → 58%+9 pts
- Q33:39Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)BKN 77 – 66 CHI · BKN 65% → 74% +10BKN 65% → 74%+10 pts
- Q33:07Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BKN 78 – 70 CHI · CHI 25% → 35% +10CHI 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q31:52Drake Powell makes 22-foot three point shot (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 81 – 72 CHI · BKN 60% → 70% +11BKN 60% → 70%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML BKN +260 / CHI -325
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4.5
- CHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 67.1%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -275
- BKN +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.0 – 119.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −2 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Tre Jones −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +124 Elo | CHI 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 120.07th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 123.227th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.7 | Margin | −3.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.5 | Pace | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148918th of 30 |
| 27th of 301349 | Elo rating | 145522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−2 Elo- Tre Jones sprained left ankle−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.