Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints22
- Ayo DosunmuAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Magic- Desmond BanePoints37
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Anthony BlackRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–125
- Q42.6Ayo Dosunmu lost ball turnover (Franz Wagner steals)120–125
- Q49.4Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Desmond Bane120–125
- Q49.4Bulls Full timeout120–125
- Q417.6Wendell Carter Jr. makes 2-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)120–125
- Q424.5Matas Buzelis makes driving layup (Tre Jones assists)120–123
- Q435.3Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2118–123
- Q435.3Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2118–122
- Q435.3Ayo Dosunmu shooting foul118–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:19Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 98 – 95 ORL · CHI 38% → 53% +15CHI 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q47:27Patrick Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 103 – 100 ORL · CHI 39% → 55% +16CHI 39% → 55%+16 pts
- Q46:38Josh Giddey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 107 – 102 ORL · CHI 51% → 67% +16CHI 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q44:21Anthony Black makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)CHI 110 – 109 ORL · ORL 32% → 52% +20ORL 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q43:23Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)CHI 111 – 112 ORL · ORL 42% → 65% +23ORL 42% → 65%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML CHI +300 / ORL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 71.0%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -317
- CHI +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.0 – 124.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | +31 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +156 Elo | ORL 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 119.39th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 114.010th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.1 | Margin | +5.28th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 102.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 7–311th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 20th of 301458 | Elo rating | 155710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–5 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Oct 25CHI 110 @ ORL 98Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Mar 6CHI 125 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 74%Miss
- Nov 27CHI 119 @ ORL 133Picked ORL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ORL 99 @ CHI 102Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Apr 7CHI 98 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Feb 10CHI 108 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 57%Hit
- Nov 17ORL 103 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 52%Miss
- Nov 15ORL 96 @ CHI 94Picked CHI 60%Miss