Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints18
- LaMelo BallAssists14
- Kon KnueppelRebounds6
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points35
- Nic ClaxtonAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–116
- Q45.0Danny Wolf defensive rebound103–116
- Q46.7Tidjane Salaun misses free throw 2 of 2103–116
- Q46.7Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2103–116
- Q46.7Danny Wolf shooting foul102–116
- Q421.2Hornets defensive team rebound102–116
- Q422.4Danny Wolf misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot102–116
- Q444.2Danny Wolf defensive rebound102–116
- Q445.8Kon Knueppel misses two point shot102–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:18Michael Porter Jr. makes 28-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)CHA 72 – 75 BKN · BKN 43% → 53% +10BKN 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q33:24Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)CHA 79 – 77 BKN · CHA 53% → 64% +11CHA 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q31:17Ben Saraf makes 27-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)CHA 81 – 87 BKN · BKN 55% → 67% +11BKN 55% → 67%+11 pts
- Q48:58Liam McNeeley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 87 – 92 BKN · CHA 20% → 32% +12CHA 20% → 32%+12 pts
- Q44:53Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Noah Clowney assists)CHA 95 – 103 BKN · BKN 76% → 89% +12BKN 76% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML CHA -185 / BKN +154
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- CHA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- CHA: Elo 51.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -165
- BKN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 116.0 – 111.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1336 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | +5 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +12 Elo | CHA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 108.430th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 119.322nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.3 | Margin | −10.927th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 109.226th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 120.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.327th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 0–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 29th of 301328 | Elo rating | 133627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–10 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–4 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Oct 22BKN 117 @ CHA 136Picked CHA 65%Hit
- Mar 8BKN 102 @ CHA 105Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Feb 10CHA 89 @ BKN 97Picked BKN 62%Hit
- Jan 29BKN 104 @ CHA 83Picked CHA 52%Miss
- Nov 19CHA 115 @ BKN 116Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Mar 9BKN 99 @ CHA 110Picked BKN 56%Miss
- Nov 30CHA 129 @ BKN 128Picked BKN 73%Miss
- Oct 30BKN 133 @ CHA 121Picked CHA 60%Miss