Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints42
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds10
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points27
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Simone FontecchioRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–111
- Q420.6Keshad Johnson makes driving layup127–111
- Q425.8Keshad Johnson offensive rebound127–109
- Q428.0Keshad Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2127–109
- Q428.0Keshad Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2127–109
- Q428.0Russell Westbrook personal foul127–108
- Q429.6Keshad Johnson defensive rebound127–108
- Q432.1Maxime Raynaud misses 3-foot hook shot127–108
- Q455.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound127–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:04Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)SAC 47 – 45 MIA · MIA 59% → 66% +7MIA 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q27:15Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 52 – 48 MIA · SAC 31% → 39% +7SAC 31% → 39%+7 pts
- Q25:40Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 57 – 50 MIA · SAC 39% → 47% +8SAC 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q25:14Zach LaVine makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 60 – 50 MIA · SAC 48% → 56% +8SAC 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q21:18Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 69 – 55 MIA · SAC 62% → 70% +8SAC 62% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML SAC +285 / MIA -360
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9.5
- MIA 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 81.9%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -301
- SAC +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 116.5 – 125.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −73 | +63 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +263 Elo | MIA 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 77.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 122.82nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 117.921st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.8 | Margin | +4.98th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 113.815th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.0 | Pace | 107.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 10–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 25th of 301415 | Elo rating | 153413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+63 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–15 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 6–13 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.