Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints22
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Kel'el WareRebounds10
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints22
- Ryan NembhardAssists13
- Anthony DavisRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–118
- Q45.2Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound108–118
- Q48.8Bam Adebayo misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot108–118
- Q420.8Bam Adebayo defensive rebound108–118
- Q424.2Ryan Nembhard misses 21-foot step back jumpshot108–118
- Q445.6Anthony Davis defensive rebound108–118
- Q448.9Bam Adebayo misses 26-foot three point jumper108–118
- Q458.1Anthony Davis makes alley oop layup (Max Christie assists)108–118
- Q41:18Andrew Wiggins makes tip shot108–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:44Dru Smith makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 97 – 104 DAL · MIA 10% → 20% +9MIA 10% → 20%+9 pts
- Q46:16Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)MIA 97 – 107 DAL · DAL 81% → 91% +9DAL 81% → 91%+9 pts
- Q46:05Kel'el Ware makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 100 – 107 DAL · MIA 9% → 18% +9MIA 9% → 18%+9 pts
- Q42:54Bam Adebayo makes two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 106 – 110 DAL · MIA 12% → 22% +10MIA 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q42:30Anthony Davis makes 11-foot two point shotMIA 106 – 112 DAL · DAL 80% → 90% +10DAL 80% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -185 / DAL +154
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 62.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -165
- DAL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 121.5 – 117.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +46 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +89 Elo | MIA 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.3 | Points scored | 111.127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 116.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.9 | Margin | −5.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 105.630th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 110.35th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.7 | Pace | 103.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 4–925th of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 12th of 301551 | Elo rating | 143023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+39 Elo- Norman Powell sprained left ankle−24 Elo
Mavericks
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.