Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints28
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints32
- Anthony BlackAssists6
- Anthony BlackRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–106
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound105–106
- Q40.0Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot105–106
- Q43.7Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul105–106
- Q45.7Heat Full timeout105–106
- Q45.7Heat Full timeout105–106
- Q45.7Heat offensive team rebound105–106
- Q45.7Norman Powell misses 13-foot two point shot105–106
- Q425.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound105–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:20Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 95 – 98 ORL · MIA 14% → 27% +13MIA 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q41:57Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 1-foot layup (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 101 – 104 ORL · MIA 8% → 19% +11MIA 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q41:35Jalen Suggs makes driving layup (Franz Wagner assists)MIA 101 – 106 ORL · ORL 83% → 93% +11ORL 83% → 93%+11 pts
- Q41:26Norman Powell makes two point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 103 – 106 ORL · MIA 6% → 16% +11MIA 6% → 16%+11 pts
- Q450.9Norman Powell makes driving layupMIA 105 – 106 ORL · MIA 11% → 33% +22MIA 11% → 33%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML MIA +185 / ORL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 62.0%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.5 – 124.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +57 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +85 Elo | ORL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.6 | Points scored | 119.28th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 114.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +4.910th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 115.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.5 | Pace | 102.911th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 12th of 301537 | Elo rating | 155411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+37 Elo- Tyler Herro toe injury−22 Elo
Magic
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–9 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–4 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Oct 22MIA 121 @ ORL 125Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Jan 27ORL 119 @ MIA 125Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 89 @ ORL 88Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 21MIA 114 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 54%Hit
- Oct 23ORL 116 @ MIA 97Picked MIA 55%Miss
- Feb 6ORL 95 @ MIA 121Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Jan 21MIA 87 @ ORL 105Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Jan 12ORL 96 @ MIA 99Picked MIA 57%Hit