San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints31
- De'Aaron FoxAssists5
- Luke KornetRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints25
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–112
- Q40.1Magic offensive team rebound114–112
- Q40.6Luke Kornet blocks Franz Wagner 's 6-foot two point shot114–112
- Q41.4Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac114–112
- Q41.4Magic Full timeout114–112
- Q41.4De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2114–112
- Q41.4De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2113–112
- Q41.4(00:01.4) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–112
- Q41.4Jonathan Isaac shooting foul112–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:25Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three pointerSA 107 – 104 ORL · ORL 11% → 29% +19ORL 11% → 29%+19 pts
- Q42:03De'Aaron Fox makes 28-foot three pointerSA 110 – 104 ORL · SA 73% → 92% +18SA 73% → 92%+18 pts
- Q41:04Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three pointerSA 110 – 109 ORL · ORL 10% → 40% +30ORL 10% → 40%+30 pts
- Q47.7Franz Wagner makes free throw 3 of 3SA 112 – 112 ORL · ORL 17% → 51% +35ORL 17% → 51%+35 pts
- Q41.4De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2SA 113 – 112 ORL · SA 49% → >99% +50SA 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -8.5
- ML SA +285 / ORL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- ORL: Elo 68.6%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -301
- SA +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.5 – 122.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +36 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +136 Elo | ORL 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 119.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 114.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +5.28th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 8–38th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 14th of 301518 | Elo rating | 156111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–8 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–4 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.