Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints25
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Keegan MurrayRebounds11
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints28
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–121
- Q45.3shot clock turnover95–121
- Q428.9Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound95–121
- Q430.9Keegan Murray misses 28-foot three point jumper95–121
- Q440.1Rockets delay of game violation95–121
- Q440.1Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)95–121
- Q41:02Clint Capela defensive rebound95–118
- Q41:04Keon Ellis misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot95–118
- Q41:11Malik Monk defensive rebound95–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:14Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 57 – 55 HOU · SAC 18% → 24% +7SAC 18% → 24%+7 pts
- Q38:54Maxime Raynaud makes 12-foot two point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 61 – 55 HOU · SAC 31% → 36% +6SAC 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q38:36Amen Thompson makes 2-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)SAC 61 – 57 HOU · HOU 63% → 69% +6HOU 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q38:11Maxime Raynaud makes driving layup (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 63 – 57 HOU · SAC 31% → 37% +6SAC 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q37:42Alperen Sengun makes two point shotSAC 63 – 59 HOU · HOU 62% → 68% +6HOU 62% → 68%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -15.5
- ML SAC +800 / HOU -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -12
- HOU 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 87.8%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -838
- SAC +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 108.0 – 123.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −66 | +46 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | SAC crossed 2 time zones and HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +342 Elo | HOU 87.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 86.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 121.84th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 111.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.1 | Margin | +10.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 120.62nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.1 | Pace | 99.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 30 |
| 24th of 301419 | Elo rating | 16014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–14 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 10–6 |
| Underdog | 6–12 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–3 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.