Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Alperen SengunAssists14
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–133
- Q48.1Jazz defensive team rebound125–133
- Q49.8Amen Thompson misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot125–133
- Q413.2Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2125–133
- Q413.2Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2125–132
- Q413.2Alperen Sengun personal take foul125–131
- Q415.9Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound125–131
- Q417.6Jabari Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper125–131
- Q418.9Rockets Full timeout125–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:48Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)HOU 99 – 109 UTAH · UTAH 68% → 80% +12UTAH 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q47:12Kyle Filipowski makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)HOU 106 – 112 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 68% +15UTAH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- Q45:12Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 113 – 114 UTAH · HOU 36% → 55% +19HOU 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q44:56Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)HOU 113 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 64% +19UTAH 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q44:21Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point shot (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)HOU 113 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 67% → 83% +16UTAH 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -11.5
- ML HOU -535 / UTAH +400
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8.5
- HOU 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 80.0%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -421
- UTAH +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 123.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +8 | HOU: Missing Steven Adams −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +241 Elo | HOU 80.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.6 | Points scored | 117.716th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 125.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.7 | Margin | −7.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30120.8 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 118.526th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.7 | Pace | 104.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15294th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301619 | Elo rating | 137126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+37 Elo- Steven Adams rest−10 Elo
Jazz
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–5 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 30HOU 129 @ UTAH 101Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Apr 2UTAH 105 @ HOU 143Picked HOU 89%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 121 @ UTAH 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 115 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Apr 11HOU 121 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Mar 29HOU 101 @ UTAH 100Picked HOU 68%Hit
- Mar 23UTAH 119 @ HOU 147Picked HOU 70%Hit
- Jan 20UTAH 126 @ HOU 127Picked UTAH 61%Miss