Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints31
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds14
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints21
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–100
- Q40.1Warriors offensive team rebound104–100
- Q40.8Moses Moody misses 30-foot three point jumper104–100
- Q45.4Reed Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2104–100
- Q45.4Reed Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2103–100
- Q45.4Moses Moody personal foul102–100
- Q45.8Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie102–100
- Q45.8Rockets Full timeout102–100
- Q46.6Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)102–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:28Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)HOU 86 – 83 GS · GS 27% → 40% +13GS 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q45:01Will Richard makes two point shotHOU 88 – 89 GS · GS 47% → 60% +13GS 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q44:18Aaron Holiday makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 91 – 89 GS · HOU 40% → 60% +21HOU 40% → 60%+21 pts
- Q43:43Will Richard makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)HOU 91 – 91 GS · GS 38% → 53% +15GS 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q42:58Reed Sheppard makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 95 – 91 GS · HOU 64% → 78% +14HOU 64% → 78%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML HOU +150 / GS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- GS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- GS: Elo 47.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -159
- HOU +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.5 – 114.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +5 | HOU: Missing Steven Adams −15, Tari Eason −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 115.819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 115.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.1 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 112.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.8 | Pace | 102.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
| 7th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 151210th of 30 |
| 4th of 301606 | Elo rating | 153613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−8 Elo- Steven Adams right ankle injury−15 Elo
- Tari Eason oblique muscle−9 Elo
Warriors
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–10 GS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- May 4GS 103 @ HOU 89PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- May 2HOU 115 @ GS 107PlayoffsPicked GS 68%Miss
- Apr 30GS 116 @ HOU 131PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Hit
- Apr 28HOU 106 @ GS 109PlayoffsPicked GS 59%Hit
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit
- Apr 23GS 94 @ HOU 109PlayoffsPicked HOU 61%Hit
- Apr 20GS 95 @ HOU 85PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 106 @ GS 96Picked GS 66%Miss