Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints27
- Amen ThompsonAssists9
- Steven AdamsRebounds12
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints19
- Jusuf NurkicAssists9
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–101
- Q47.3Kyle Anderson makes 23-foot three pointer (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)129–101
- Q414.8shot clock turnover129–98
- Q438.8Kyle Filipowski makes 5-foot dunk (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)129–98
- Q450.4Clint Capela makes dunk129–96
- Q450.4Clint Capela offensive rebound127–96
- Q451.6Jeff Green misses 11-foot two point shot127–96
- Q41:10Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 2127–96
- Q41:10Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 2127–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)HOU 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 18% → 23% +4UTAH 18% → 23%+4 pts
- Q111:21Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 3 – 3 UTAH · HOU 77% → 82% +4HOU 77% → 82%+4 pts
- Q110:48Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 6 – 5 UTAH · HOU 79% → 83% +4HOU 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q110:31Jusuf Nurkic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)HOU 6 – 8 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 21% +4UTAH 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q16:00Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 20 – 12 UTAH · HOU 87% → 90% +3HOU 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -11.5
- ML HOU -650 / UTAH +425
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 78.1%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -455
- UTAH +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 122.5 – 111.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +19 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Kevin Love −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +221 Elo | HOU 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.1 | Points scored | 118.614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 125.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.7 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 118.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.5 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–2 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 30 |
| 6th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15244th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301611 | Elo rating | 137826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+19 Elo- Kevin Love rest−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–2 UTAH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.