Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints36
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Kings- Malik MonkPoints18
- Malik MonkAssists5
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–105
- Q411.1Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2136–105
- Q411.1Devin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2136–104
- Q411.1Zeke Nnaji shooting foul136–103
- Q421.2Hunter Tyson makes 2-foot dunk136–103
- Q441.7Malik Monk makes 24-foot three pointer134–103
- Q448.0Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2134–100
- Q448.0Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2133–100
- Q448.0Devin Carter shooting foul132–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:47Peyton Watson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 5 – 4 SAC · DEN 76% → 81% +5DEN 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q19:31DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)DEN 5 – 7 SAC · SAC 20% → 24% +5SAC 20% → 24%+5 pts
- Q15:56Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 16 – 13 SAC · DEN 78% → 83% +5DEN 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q14:28Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 21 – 15 SAC · DEN 82% → 86% +4DEN 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q13:30Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three pointerDEN 26 – 17 SAC · DEN 86% → 90% +3DEN 86% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML DEN -485 / SAC +370
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 78.4%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- DEN -390
- SAC +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 125.0 – 114.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −75 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +223 Elo | DEN 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.0 | Points scored | 111.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 122.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.7 | Margin | −10.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.5 | Offense rating | 107.627th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 117.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.8 | Pace | 103.08th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–2 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15651st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301647 | Elo rating | 143722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–10 | 8–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 7–14 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–4 SAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Nov 22SAC 128 @ DEN 123Picked DEN 82%Miss
- Nov 11DEN 122 @ SAC 108Picked DEN 76%Hit
- Nov 3SAC 124 @ DEN 130Picked DEN 83%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 124 @ SAC 116Picked DEN 63%Hit
- Mar 5SAC 110 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Jan 23SAC 123 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Dec 16DEN 130 @ SAC 129Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Feb 28SAC 96 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 65%Hit