Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints34
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- Miles BridgesAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–106
- Q412.65 second violation115–106
- Q412.6Hornets Full timeout115–106
- Q412.6Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2115–106
- Q412.6Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2114–106
- Q412.6Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner113–106
- Q412.6Ryan Kalkbrenner personal foul113–106
- Q416.3Cameron Johnson defensive rebound113–106
- Q420.3Brandon Miller misses running pullup jump shot113–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:41Liam McNeeley makes 22-foot three point shot (Sion James assists)DEN 52 – 56 CHA · CHA 30% → 38% +8CHA 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q224.0Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumperDEN 57 – 56 CHA · DEN 67% → 74% +8DEN 67% → 74%+8 pts
- Q310:35Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)DEN 60 – 66 CHA · CHA 37% → 46% +9CHA 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q310:15Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 63 – 66 CHA · DEN 54% → 63% +9DEN 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q324.6Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 85 – 81 CHA · CHA 13% → 21% +8CHA 13% → 21%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML DEN -470 / CHA +360
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.2%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -379
- CHA +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.0 – 112.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1349 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −36 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Collin Sexton −16 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +265 Elo | DEN 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.5 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 118.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.7 | Margin | −3.921st of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.8 | Offense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 115.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–2 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 147727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301644 | Elo rating | 134928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−36 Elo- Collin Sexton left quad strain−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–9 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–7 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.