Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints21
- Kon KnueppelAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists5
- Brandon IngramRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–86
- Q44.2Mason Plumlee defensive rebound111–86
- Q46.2Ja'Kobe Walter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot111–86
- Q411.8Raptors offensive team rebound111–86
- Q412.9Collin Murray-Boyles misses driving floating jump shot111–86
- Q435.9Antonio Reeves makes two point shot (KJ Simpson assists)111–86
- Q450.0(00:50) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)109–86
- Q450.0Liam McNeeley offensive rebound109–86
- Q451.6Antonio Reeves misses 25-foot three point jumper109–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:44Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three pointer (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)CHA 58 – 49 TOR · CHA 54% → 63% +9CHA 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:47Immanuel Quickley makes 29-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CHA 62 – 56 TOR · TOR 35% → 44% +9TOR 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q37:03Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 64 – 59 TOR · TOR 37% → 47% +10TOR 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q33:22Tidjane Salaun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 74 – 65 TOR · CHA 60% → 70% +10CHA 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q31:10Jamison Battle makes 22-foot three point shot (Gradey Dick assists)CHA 78 – 70 TOR · TOR 21% → 30% +9TOR 21% → 30%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML CHA +220 / TOR -270
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8.5
- TOR 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 79.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -234
- CHA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 112.0 – 118.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1311 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | +66 | CHA: Usual rotation · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +239 Elo | TOR 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 72.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points scored | 117.815th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 113.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.2 | Margin | +4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.616th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
| 20th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 146729th of 30 |
| 29th of 301311 | Elo rating | 149116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–12 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–14 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 3–6 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 29TOR 111 @ CHA 118Picked TOR 71%Miss
- Nov 17CHA 108 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 73%Hit
- Apr 9CHA 96 @ TOR 126Picked TOR 80%Hit
- Mar 28CHA 97 @ TOR 108Picked TOR 66%Hit
- Oct 30TOR 133 @ CHA 138Picked CHA 68%Hit
- Mar 3CHA 106 @ TOR 111Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Feb 7TOR 123 @ CHA 117Picked TOR 56%Hit
- Dec 18CHA 99 @ TOR 114Picked TOR 67%Hit