Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints44
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–120
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)123–120
- Q40.3Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)123–120
- Q420.9Jake LaRavia defensive rebound120–120
- Q422.9Brandon Ingram misses two point shot120–120
- Q441.2Austin Reaves makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot120–120
- Q449.2Brandon Ingram makes 10-foot jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)118–120
- Q456.8Brandon Ingram defensive rebound118–118
- Q41:01Scottie Barnes blocks LeBron James 's 13-foot two point shot118–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:41Sandro Mamukelashvili makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)LAL 116 – 117 TOR · TOR 42% → 60% +17TOR 42% → 60%+17 pts
- Q41:46LeBron James makes two point shotLAL 118 – 118 TOR · LAL 29% → 49% +21LAL 29% → 49%+21 pts
- Q449.2Brandon Ingram makes 10-foot jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)LAL 118 – 120 TOR · TOR 51% → 79% +29TOR 51% → 79%+29 pts
- Q441.2Austin Reaves makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotLAL 120 – 120 TOR · LAL 19% → 49% +31LAL 19% → 49%+31 pts
- Q40.3Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 123 – 120 TOR · LAL 50% → 100% +50LAL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML LAL +114 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2.5
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- LAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.0 – 115.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +36 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 117.715th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 113.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +4.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 115.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Road vs home | 8–25th of 30 |
| 27th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 146229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301583 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–7 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–6 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.