Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints33
- Royce O'NealeAssists11
- Ryan DunnRebounds8
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–108
- Q420.6Nick Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)125–108
- Q434.6Nigel Hayes-Davis makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot125–105
- Q455.9Adou Thiero bad pass (Nigel Hayes-Davis steals)123–105
- Q41:12Jordan Goodwin makes 28-foot three pointer123–105
- Q41:34Maxi Kleber makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)120–105
- Q41:45Adou Thiero defensive rebound120–102
- Q41:47Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 23-foot two point shot120–102
- Q42:14Dalton Knecht makes 14-foot two point shot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)120–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:21Jordan Goodwin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 40 – 41 LAL · PHX 27% → 34% +7PHX 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q25:08Jamaree Bouyea makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 45 – 43 LAL · PHX 35% → 42% +8PHX 35% → 42%+8 pts
- Q22:15Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 58 – 50 LAL · PHX 52% → 60% +8PHX 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q21:10Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 61 – 50 LAL · PHX 61% → 69% +8PHX 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q250.3Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)PHX 64 – 52 LAL · PHX 64% → 71% +8PHX 64% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML PHX +185 / LAL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 66.5%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -197
- PHX +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.0 – 118.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +54 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +119 Elo | LAL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 119.67th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 115.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 118.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–26th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 147228th of 30 |
| 12th of 301541 | Elo rating | 16055th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–5 LAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Mar 16PHX 96 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Nov 26LAL 100 @ PHX 127Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Oct 28LAL 105 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 60%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 116 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 25LAL 113 @ PHX 123Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Jan 11PHX 127 @ LAL 109Picked LAL 56%Miss
- Dec 5PHX 103 @ LAL 106Picked PHX 52%Miss
- Nov 10LAL 122 @ PHX 119Picked PHX 72%Miss