New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Bryce McGowensPoints23
- Bryce McGowensAssists5
- Saddiq BeyRebounds11
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Austin ReavesAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–133
- Q415.4shot clock turnover121–133
- Q439.8Derik Queen makes two point shot121–133
- Q443.6Derik Queen defensive rebound119–133
- Q445.9Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot119–133
- Q41:05Austin Reaves defensive rebound119–133
- Q41:09Austin Reaves blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 2-foot two point shot119–133
- Q41:12Derik Queen defensive rebound119–133
- Q41:15Rui Hachimura misses 24-foot three point jumper119–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Luka Doncic makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotNO 0 – 3 LAL · LAL 89% → 92% +3LAL 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q110:00Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 2 – 9 LAL · LAL 92% → 94% +2LAL 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q16:02Bryce McGowens makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)NO 12 – 21 LAL · NO 3% → 5% +1NO 3% → 5%+1 pts
- Q14:53Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)NO 14 – 26 LAL · LAL 95% → 97% +1LAL 95% → 97%+1 pts
- Q32:08Yves Missi makes driving dunk (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 89 – 100 LAL · NO 3% → 4% +1NO 3% → 4%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -15.5
- ML NO +800 / LAL -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -14
- LAL 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 90.4%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -847
- NO +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 106.5 – 122.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1334 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −46 | −2 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +389 Elo | LAL 90.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 90.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 90.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 118.911th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−10.8 | Margin | +3.812th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 117.25th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 6–28th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 147828th of 30 |
| 28th of 301334 | Elo rating | 16036th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–10 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–7 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 14LAL 118 @ NO 104Picked LAL 79%Hit
- Apr 4NO 108 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 90%Hit
- Mar 4NO 115 @ LAL 136Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 16LAL 104 @ NO 99Picked LAL 74%Hit
- Apr 14LAL 124 @ NO 108Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 9NO 122 @ LAL 139Picked NO 54%Miss
- Dec 31LAL 109 @ NO 129Picked NO 62%Hit
- Dec 7NO 89 @ LAL 133Picked NO 53%Miss