New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- Zion WilliamsonAssists4
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists10
- Gary Payton IIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–104
- Q417.1Saddiq Bey makes 1-foot driving dunk (Zion Williamson assists)96–104
- Q424.7Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 2 of 294–104
- Q424.7Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 1 of 294–103
- Q424.7Saddiq Bey personal take foul94–102
- Q425.2Zion Williamson makes 1-foot dunk (Jose Alvarado assists)94–102
- Q430.5Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 2 of 292–102
- Q430.5Will Richard enters the game for Quinten Post92–101
- Q430.5Warriors offensive team rebound92–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:17Will Richard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)NO 77 – 79 GS · GS 58% → 72% +14GS 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q47:53Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)NO 79 – 82 GS · GS 62% → 76% +13GS 62% → 76%+13 pts
- Q47:42Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three pointerNO 82 – 82 GS · NO 24% → 38% +14NO 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q47:28Jonathan Kuminga makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)NO 82 – 85 GS · GS 62% → 76% +14GS 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q43:50Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 88 – 90 GS · GS 51% → 72% +21GS 51% → 72%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML NO +340 / GS -450
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- GS: Elo 70.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -360
- NO +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.5 – 119.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −45 | NO: Missing Trey Murphy III −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +153 Elo | GS 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 115.021st of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 114.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−11.0 | Margin | +0.616th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.1 | Defense rating | 111.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.916th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 15196th of 30 |
| 27th of 301339 | Elo rating | 153013th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+30 Elo- Trey Murphy III right elbow−8 Elo
Warriors
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–6 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.