Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds9
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints35
- Josh HartAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–119
- Q415.1Trey Jemison III defensive rebound104–119
- Q416.3KJ Simpson misses free throw 2 of 2104–119
- Q416.3Trey Jemison III enters the game for Josh Hart104–119
- Q416.3Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Miles McBride104–119
- Q416.3KJ Simpson makes free throw 1 of 2104–119
- Q416.3Guerschon Yabusele shooting foul103–119
- Q421.5Moussa Diabate defensive rebound103–119
- Q422.7Miles McBride misses two point shot103–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:43Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)CHA 40 – 49 NY · NY 83% → 88% +5NY 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q20.0Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)CHA 47 – 53 NY · NY 77% → 83% +6NY 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q311:21LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 50 – 53 NY · CHA 17% → 23% +6CHA 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q310:25Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)CHA 52 – 58 NY · NY 77% → 83% +6NY 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q310:04Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)CHA 54 – 61 NY · NY 79% → 85% +6NY 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -9.5
- ML CHA +310 / NY -395
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9.5
- NY 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- NY: Elo 82.5%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- NY -327
- CHA +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.0 – 122.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | +17 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +269 Elo | NY 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 79.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.2 | Points scored | 120.36th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 113.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.7 | Margin | +6.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 119.23rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 10–12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148820th of 30 |
| 29th of 301315 | Elo rating | 15975th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–11 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–7 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.