New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints42
- Derrick WhiteAssists5
- Josh MinottRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–123
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound117–123
- Q40.0Mikal Bridges misses heave jump shot117–123
- Q42.3Jaylen Brown makes 1-foot dunk (Anfernee Simons assists)117–123
- Q45.8Jalen Brunson makes driving layup117–121
- Q411.3Derrick White makes 3-foot layup (Sam Hauser assists)115–121
- Q412.8Sam Hauser enters the game for Neemias Queta115–119
- Q412.8Payton Pritchard enters the game for Jordan Walsh115–119
- Q412.8Anfernee Simons enters the game for Josh Minott115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:29Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 99 – 102 BOS · NY 20% → 34% +14NY 20% → 34%+14 pts
- Q46:12Josh Minott makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)NY 99 – 105 BOS · BOS 66% → 81% +14BOS 66% → 81%+14 pts
- Q43:30Derrick White makes 27-foot three pointer (Jordan Walsh assists)NY 104 – 112 BOS · BOS 83% → 94% +11BOS 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q42:40Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 110 – 113 BOS · NY 9% → 26% +16NY 9% → 26%+16 pts
- Q42:13Jordan Walsh makes layup (Jaylen Brown assists)NY 110 – 115 BOS · BOS 76% → 89% +12BOS 76% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- NY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NY: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.0 – 114.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −45 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +22 Elo | NY 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 114.921st of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.5 | Margin | +4.011th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.530th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
| 26th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 148624th of 30 |
| 4th of 301606 | Elo rating | 16153rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–10 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.
- Oct 24BOS 95 @ NY 105Picked NY 61%Hit
- May 16BOS 81 @ NY 119PlayoffsPicked NY 57%Hit
- May 14NY 102 @ BOS 127PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 12BOS 113 @ NY 121PlayoffsPicked BOS 68%Miss
- May 10BOS 115 @ NY 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- May 7NY 91 @ BOS 90PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Miss
- May 5NY 108 @ BOS 105PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Miss
- Apr 8BOS 119 @ NY 117Picked BOS 55%Hit