Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints40
- Jamal MurrayAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints30
- Jalen JohnsonAssists16
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–133
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound134–133
- Q40.7Jamal Murray misses driving layup134–133
- Q42.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes driving layup134–133
- Q44.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound134–131
- Q45.7Jamal Murray blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker 's 28-foot three point jumper134–131
- Q415.6Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Spencer Jones134–131
- Q415.6Cameron Johnson enters the game for Peyton Watson134–131
- Q415.6Luke Kennard enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye134–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:04Jamal Murray makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 103 – 106 ATL · DEN 28% → 41% +12DEN 28% → 41%+12 pts
- Q49:41Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 106 – 106 ATL · DEN 40% → 54% +14DEN 40% → 54%+14 pts
- Q41:31Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)DEN 129 – 127 ATL · ATL 7% → 27% +20ATL 7% → 27%+20 pts
- Q41:08Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot two point shotDEN 131 – 127 ATL · DEN 76% → 92% +16DEN 76% → 92%+16 pts
- Q456.7Jalen Johnson makes 16-foot step back jumpshot (Dyson Daniels assists)DEN 131 – 129 ATL · ATL 6% → 22% +15ATL 6% → 22%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -162 / ATL +136
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 57.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -146
- ATL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.0 – 117.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +35 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +53 Elo | DEN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.1 | Points scored | 116.819th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 115.712th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.0 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.5 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.8 | Pace | 102.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–2 | Road vs home | 4–521st of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 148424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301641 | Elo rating | 148617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+35 Elo- Trae Young right mcl sprain−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–7 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–0 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.