Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints21
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Kris MurrayRebounds9
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Jose AlvaradoAssists9
- Saddiq BeyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–143
- Q43.1Caleb Love lost ball turnover (Jeremiah Fears steals)120–143
- Q46.8Trail Blazers defensive team rebound120–143
- Q49.2Karlo Matkovic misses dunk120–143
- Q49.2Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound120–143
- Q415.4Karlo Matkovic blocks Sidy Cissoko 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shot120–143
- Q423.5Trail Blazers defensive team rebound120–143
- Q423.8Jordan Hawkins misses running pullup jump shot120–143
- Q430.3Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound120–143
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:25Deni Avdija makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)POR 85 – 86 NO · POR 43% → 53% +10POR 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q32:27Sidy Cissoko makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 94 – 96 NO · POR 37% → 48% +11POR 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q30.0Bryce McGowens makes 27-foot three pointer (Jose Alvarado assists)POR 97 – 105 NO · NO 65% → 76% +11NO 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q410:35Bryce McGowens makes 22-foot three point jumper (Micah Peavy assists)POR 101 – 108 NO · NO 63% → 74% +12NO 63% → 74%+12 pts
- Q49:43Micah Peavy makes 24-foot three pointer (Jordan Poole assists)POR 101 – 111 NO · NO 76% → 85% +10NO 76% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- POR -4.5
- ML POR -170 / NO +142
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3.5
- POR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- POR: Elo 63.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- POR -152
- NO +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 123.5 – 119.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1317 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | −40 | POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −18, Robert Williams III −12, Yang Hansen −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +96 Elo | POR 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 113.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 123.728th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.3 | Margin | −10.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 110.224th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 120.629th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 101.319th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 2–1230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Opponent Elo | 15423rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301448 | Elo rating | 131729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−15 Elo- Donovan Clingan lower leg−18 Elo
- Robert Williams III illness−12 Elo
- Yang Hansen facial injury−2 Elo
Pelicans
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–11 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–4 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 12POR 125 @ NO 117Picked POR 75%Hit
- Jan 8POR 119 @ NO 100Picked NO 53%Miss
- Nov 4POR 118 @ NO 100Picked NO 50%Miss
- Oct 27NO 103 @ POR 125Picked NO 69%Miss
- Oct 25NO 105 @ POR 103Picked NO 70%Hit
- Apr 9NO 110 @ POR 100Picked NO 68%Hit
- Mar 16POR 107 @ NO 126Picked NO 77%Hit
- Feb 10NO 93 @ POR 84Picked NO 58%Hit