Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Naz ReidAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints33
- Derik QueenAssists6
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game149–142
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime149–142
- OT18.0Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot149–142
- OT26.4Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)149–139
- OT34.3Trey Murphy III makes tip shot147–139
- OT34.3Trey Murphy III offensive rebound147–137
- OT35.2Trey Murphy III misses two point shot147–137
- OT42.5Rudy Gobert makes dunk147–137
- OT42.5Rudy Gobert offensive rebound145–137
- OT46.2Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot145–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:44Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trey Alexander assists)MIN 117 – 121 NO · NO 43% → 60% +18NO 43% → 60%+18 pts
- Q41:49Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 125 – 125 NO · MIN 27% → 58% +31MIN 27% → 58%+31 pts
- Q41:03Derik Queen makes 1-foot dunk (Jeremiah Fears assists)MIN 125 – 129 NO · NO 71% → 90% +18NO 71% → 90%+18 pts
- Q435.6Jaden McDaniels makes 6-foot two point shotMIN 127 – 129 NO · MIN 4% → 20% +17MIN 4% → 20%+17 pts
- Q42.3Anthony Edwards makes driving layupMIN 129 – 129 NO · MIN <1% → 51% +51MIN <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML MIN -675 / NO +490
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -11
- MIN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 85.0%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -514
- NO +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 121.0 – 108.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1332 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −34 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +302 Elo | MIN 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 111.227th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 122.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −10.928th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 109.426th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 120.129th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.726th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 2–929th of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15353rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301595 | Elo rating | 133228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–3 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.