Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints28
- Naz ReidAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists8
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–116
- Q414.8Jeremiah Fears makes two point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)125–116
- Q419.2Anthony Edwards bad pass (Jose Alvarado steals)125–114
- Q422.2Naz Reid defensive rebound125–114
- Q423.2Trey Murphy III misses tip shot125–114
- Q423.2Trey Murphy III offensive rebound125–114
- Q426.0Trey Murphy III misses two point shot125–114
- Q434.4Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)125–114
- Q454.1Jeremiah Fears makes dunk (Saddiq Bey assists)122–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:18Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 81 – 83 NO · MIN 53% → 64% +10MIN 53% → 64%+10 pts
- Q32:49Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)MIN 83 – 88 NO · NO 38% → 49% +11NO 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q410:59Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 91 – 91 NO · MIN 54% → 67% +13MIN 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q49:57Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 93 – 91 NO · MIN 66% → 74% +8MIN 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q49:28Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 96 – 91 NO · MIN 74% → 84% +10MIN 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML MIN -575 / NO +425
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 83.4%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -447
- NO +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 122.0 – 110.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1330 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −29 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +280 Elo | MIN 83.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 84.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 112.624th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 123.328th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −10.728th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 110.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 120.629th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.824th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 2–1029th of 30 |
| 18th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301597 | Elo rating | 133028th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–13 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 2MIN 149 @ NO 142Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 21NO 93 @ MIN 134Picked MIN 86%Hit
- Mar 19NO 119 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 85%Miss
- Jan 7MIN 104 @ NO 97Picked MIN 61%Hit
- Jan 3NO 117 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 63%Miss
- Dec 11MIN 107 @ NO 121Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 18MIN 121 @ NO 120Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Nov 8NO 101 @ MIN 122Picked MIN 65%Hit