San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints24
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Luke KornetRebounds8
Pelicans- Derik QueenPoints33
- Derik QueenAssists10
- Derik QueenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–132
- Q40.1Pelicans offensive team rebound135–132
- Q40.3Saddiq Bey misses 25-foot three point jumper135–132
- Q41.1Devin Vassell enters the game for Keldon Johnson135–132
- Q41.1Dylan Harper enters the game for Luke Kornet135–132
- Q41.1Jose Alvarado enters the game for Herbert Jones135–132
- Q41.1Pelicans Full timeout135–132
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2135–132
- Q41.1Keldon Johnson enters the game for Dylan Harper134–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:55Julian Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)SA 110 – 109 NO · SA 53% → 66% +14SA 53% → 66%+14 pts
- Q459.4Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)SA 129 – 130 NO · NO 20% → 60% +40NO 20% → 60%+40 pts
- Q440.3De'Aaron Fox makes 18-foot two point shot (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 131 – 130 NO · SA 36% → 70% +34SA 36% → 70%+34 pts
- Q430.0Derik Queen makes driving layupSA 131 – 132 NO · NO 28% → 67% +39NO 28% → 67%+39 pts
- Q49.1Dylan Harper makes driving layupSA 133 – 132 NO · SA 19% → 83% +65SA 19% → 83%+65 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -8.5
- ML SA -380 / NO +300
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -8
- SA 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SA: Elo 79.0%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -317
- NO +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 123.5 – 115.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −50 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +230 Elo | SA 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 112.325th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 123.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −11.029th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 109.626th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 120.329th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.121st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 2–1130th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15424th of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 131929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–9 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 5–5 NO in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.