New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints23
- Jose AlvaradoAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds9
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points35
- Nic ClaxtonAssists10
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–119
- Q40.1Pelicans offensive team rebound101–119
- Q40.6Jeremiah Fears misses 9-foot pullup jump shot101–119
- Q44.9shot clock turnover101–119
- Q429.0Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2101–119
- Q429.0Pelicans offensive team rebound100–119
- Q429.0Jeremiah Fears misses free throw 1 of 2100–119
- Q429.0Danny Wolf shooting foul100–119
- Q432.4Day'Ron Sharpe makes driving layup (Danny Wolf assists)100–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 3 – 2 BKN · NO 36% → 42% +6NO 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q110:48Michael Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)NO 3 – 5 BKN · BKN 58% → 64% +6BKN 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q19:15Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)NO 7 – 8 BKN · BKN 55% → 62% +6BKN 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q15:25Egor Demin makes 26-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)NO 13 – 17 BKN · BKN 61% → 68% +6BKN 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q23:28Egor Demin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)NO 38 – 48 BKN · BKN 75% → 81% +6BKN 75% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -3.5
- ML NO +140 / BKN -166
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -4.5
- BKN 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- BKN: Elo 67.0%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- BKN -150
- NO +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.0 – 115.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +12 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +123 Elo | BKN 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 109.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.4 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.7 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 109.526th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.2 | Defense rating | 118.527th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 1–1030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Opponent Elo | 149716th of 30 |
| 29th of 301328 | Elo rating | 135427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–10 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | — |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–2 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.